A Golden Opportunity
With all that's happening in Israel and Lebanon right now, I wonder if Israel is facing what it might consider a golden opportunity to completely reshape the middle-east conflict.
Here is the idea: Israel goes into a full scale pre-emptive war, similar to the six-day war but a little easier, since it's only against Lebanon and Syria. Syria's army is so dilapidated, and Lebanon's practically non-existent, that my estimate is it would take Israel about 4 days to get to both Beirut and Damascus, completely obliterating both the Syrian and Lebanese armies in the process.
The world, of course, will be aghast at this, but it will also be conflicted and divided; this war would be just as justified as the US invasion of Iraq - heck, much more so - and the US will have to figure out how it wants to respond, and it will, out of necessity have to back Israel. Well, guess what - as long as the US backs Israel in the UN, Israel can continue operations. It's that simple, due to the veto power in the security council. Yes, there will be demands to stop, back off, be nice, but there will be no teeth to them. Oh, and don't forget the US is still fully deployed in Iraq - I want to see the arab country that dares to rattle its weapons at Israel during all this, and yes, I do mean Iran. Bush would love nothing more than to have a pretext to go after the Mullahs, and I'm sure those feelings would be echoed in the Pantagon.
Under this scenario, which I think is completely realistic, 4 days later Israel has quintupled its territory, essentially unopposed. If there is anyone in the world who thinks Syria and Lebanon stand a chance in hell of even resisting the onslaught, please stand up. But I don't think so.
Now comes the next step. Israel at that point immediately ceases military operations, "giving in to world demands". At the same time, it begin transferring all the palestinian population from the gaza strip and the west bank into newly acquired Syrian territory. Of course, it completely denies this operation to the world for as long as it can, and does its best to seed confusion in world media while it is going on.
This transfer will take about a week, two at the most. Yes, some civilian palestinian population will get killed, but most will figure out they have no chance at resisting, especially if Israel does this with an iron fist; there is nothing like a few thousand deaths to quell something like the intifada. In other words, get on the trucks or you're dead. You have 10 seconds to comply. Next?
By that time, the world of course will have learned of all this, and even the US will have to shift its support and lift its veto. Fine. Once the UN resolution comes down, Israel complies, and steps down. It then, out of its own accord, backs off to the "2006 lines" - those of, well, today, July 13th.
The end result? Israel faces some serious political and diplomatic pressure for a little while - but really, what is the world going to do? So it deals with it, and lets the rage pass. The Palestinian problem disappears in its current form. Israel never, ever, ever allows them back, no matter what is promised it in return - it just doesn't happen. Israel regains the respect of the arab countries (as much as I hate to say it, that's how it works in that part of the world), eliminates its inland terrorists, flexes its muscles in a serious enough manner to scare the world into rethinking its position on how much force Israel actually has, redraws the lines of the conflict, and five years down the road, is in a tremendously improved reality.
I think that because of the current world political environment, this would work. I don't think it would work after the US gets out of Iraq, and the presence of the US army there is a critical component of making this a realistic endevour. I think Israel would be stupid to waste the opportunity, not from a personal pespective, but from observation and assessment of the geopolitical environment. A golden opportunity, very similar to the six-day war (which had a tremendous long-term positive impact on Israel). Again, I am not saying I am personally in favor of it, only that I think it's realistic. Could happen. Might happen. What do you think?
Here is the idea: Israel goes into a full scale pre-emptive war, similar to the six-day war but a little easier, since it's only against Lebanon and Syria. Syria's army is so dilapidated, and Lebanon's practically non-existent, that my estimate is it would take Israel about 4 days to get to both Beirut and Damascus, completely obliterating both the Syrian and Lebanese armies in the process.
The world, of course, will be aghast at this, but it will also be conflicted and divided; this war would be just as justified as the US invasion of Iraq - heck, much more so - and the US will have to figure out how it wants to respond, and it will, out of necessity have to back Israel. Well, guess what - as long as the US backs Israel in the UN, Israel can continue operations. It's that simple, due to the veto power in the security council. Yes, there will be demands to stop, back off, be nice, but there will be no teeth to them. Oh, and don't forget the US is still fully deployed in Iraq - I want to see the arab country that dares to rattle its weapons at Israel during all this, and yes, I do mean Iran. Bush would love nothing more than to have a pretext to go after the Mullahs, and I'm sure those feelings would be echoed in the Pantagon.
Under this scenario, which I think is completely realistic, 4 days later Israel has quintupled its territory, essentially unopposed. If there is anyone in the world who thinks Syria and Lebanon stand a chance in hell of even resisting the onslaught, please stand up. But I don't think so.
Now comes the next step. Israel at that point immediately ceases military operations, "giving in to world demands". At the same time, it begin transferring all the palestinian population from the gaza strip and the west bank into newly acquired Syrian territory. Of course, it completely denies this operation to the world for as long as it can, and does its best to seed confusion in world media while it is going on.
This transfer will take about a week, two at the most. Yes, some civilian palestinian population will get killed, but most will figure out they have no chance at resisting, especially if Israel does this with an iron fist; there is nothing like a few thousand deaths to quell something like the intifada. In other words, get on the trucks or you're dead. You have 10 seconds to comply. Next?
By that time, the world of course will have learned of all this, and even the US will have to shift its support and lift its veto. Fine. Once the UN resolution comes down, Israel complies, and steps down. It then, out of its own accord, backs off to the "2006 lines" - those of, well, today, July 13th.
The end result? Israel faces some serious political and diplomatic pressure for a little while - but really, what is the world going to do? So it deals with it, and lets the rage pass. The Palestinian problem disappears in its current form. Israel never, ever, ever allows them back, no matter what is promised it in return - it just doesn't happen. Israel regains the respect of the arab countries (as much as I hate to say it, that's how it works in that part of the world), eliminates its inland terrorists, flexes its muscles in a serious enough manner to scare the world into rethinking its position on how much force Israel actually has, redraws the lines of the conflict, and five years down the road, is in a tremendously improved reality.
I think that because of the current world political environment, this would work. I don't think it would work after the US gets out of Iraq, and the presence of the US army there is a critical component of making this a realistic endevour. I think Israel would be stupid to waste the opportunity, not from a personal pespective, but from observation and assessment of the geopolitical environment. A golden opportunity, very similar to the six-day war (which had a tremendous long-term positive impact on Israel). Again, I am not saying I am personally in favor of it, only that I think it's realistic. Could happen. Might happen. What do you think?
posted by Blinkered at 7:47 AM
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